Despite the title of the post, this is not another doom and gloom article. I'm as saddened as anyone else about the layoffs, but I'm still cautiously optimistic regarding the future of WAR. Let me give you some personal background about the type of work I do. I work in retail, in a very niche/enthusiast activity. My business, aside from the apparel sales is based on an activity that is completely dependent on discretionary income. In this economy, my industry is hurting fairly badly, many brands have gone out of business, and many retailers have failed as well. This past Christmas season was the worst one we've had in seven years. The business I work for is still doing okay, but we have tightened our belts and cut costs as much as possible. Sales are down, and we are hurting, but we are much luckier than most.
Okay, with that out of the way, let me attempt to address the current topics.
1. 300,000 Subs: All right, this is the current number of active subs released by Mythic. This is down from the 750,000 number of active subs that was released some months ago. Of course, people are freaking out, and proclaiming that the end is nigh, without looking at the whole picture. The 750K was when many players had yet to renew their subscription after the first free month. Also, the WotLK and Mines of Moria expansions were released shortly after this period. And one should not be surprised that many players flocked back to WoW and Lotro, after WAR's "new MMO shine" had worn off. I will also admit that WAR had many more issues in those days than it does now. One must commend Mythic for the sheer amount of new and improved content that they delivered since then. We are currently looking at the final two careers debuting soon, a huge new zone and dungeon from the Lands of the Dead expansion. Stability is much improved etc, etc. Of course there still are issues and bugs, but you have to give credit where credit is due. In the limited timeframe since launch, the amount of "new and better" stuff Mythic has released is incredible.
Lets not forget, 300K subs is roughly 4.5 MILLION dollars every month. That's nothing to scoff at. I also positively believe that number of active subs will only go up. Many players are excited about the upcoming expansion content and new careers. I also personally know many players coming back to play the Slayer and Choppa. 300K is a solid base to grow from, and I think that it will slowly grow over time, like the playerbase for EvE and Lotro. At 4.5 mil a month, I think WAR will continue to be a profit-maker for EA
2. Mythic layoffs: This sucks. Flat out. But it is not completely unexpected. Again, despite claims that the video game industry is "recession-proof", the game industry is hurting. Just like many other industries all over the world. We have seen publishers and game developers go under, Free Radical, Ensemble and more. THQ is laying off close to a quarter of its staff. In recent months as you all know, Mythic has had to let go playtester, QA and CS staff, and now some members of the design and dev teams. Mark Jacobs has taken flak for both not speaking out fast enough, and when he did speak about it, he took flak for the tone of his post. I don't envy MJ is position right now. He's damned either way, no matter what he says or does. He has to try for a positive spin, otherwise the doomsayers will point to his post and say that even the main guy is telling people the game is doomed. Players still criticized the positive parts of his statement, saying that he's not in touch with reality and that he's living in his own happy world. See what I mean?
Even though I personally would have liked him to say "yes, this sucks, and we feel bad about this", I understand why he can't. He also can not remain silent. I may not feel great about his statement, but I understand the position that he is in. He has to do the best he can, within the resources available to him. It's a bad bit of news, but Mythic has to keep its chin up. I know that the remaining team feel terrible about what has happened, even though they may make no official statement about it.
3. Now what?: Actually, syncaine over at Hardcore Casual just put up a great post on a similar subject. Basically, WAR is in the post-tourist/launch hype stage. Many players that played WAR at launch because it was the new hot MMO have left, and a core number of players have settled down. A large infusion of new content is coming soon, and while enthusiasm has been dampened by the sad news, anticipation is still high for the new careers and events. Mythic is in a position to consolidate their gains, and solidify their position. I think that so long as Mythic shows it's commitment to the playerbase and continues to add and tweak content we can expect some steady growth for the game. I think that 500k active subs by the end of the year is a doable goal. Also that 300K is a good, solid number, especially when compared to the numbers of games (Other than Wow) that are considered successful, such as Lotro or CoH/V.
Personally, I would like Mythic to start minor consolidation of the servers. I'm not speaking of massive server merges, but reducing the number of servers by 15-20% would be a good start towards helping the population on some lower-pop servers. Also, opening up an Asian client and getting some Korean and Chinese players going, could only be a good thing for the bottom line. Don't forget that WoW gets a considerable chunk of its revenues from the Chinese market. So much revenue in fact, that Blizzard actually modified some parts of the game in order to conform to Chinese tastes and laws. No reason that WAR can't get a slice of that pie.
In closing, I'm gonna say that I've already made my choice. I'm sticking with WAR. I want to experience the new expansion. I want to play as the new careers. I'm sad about the layoffs, but I hope that if WAR does well, and the economy starts doing better, we may see some people rehired. I want to help the game grow. The Warhammer IP is so unique, and i doubt we will see another MMO based on the Warhammer Fantasy IP again anytime soon if WAR fails. This may be a one-time chance for us all. For crying out loud, you can play a freaking SLAYER! Show your pride! Give your free trials to your buddies! Go fight! For Order! For Destruction! For the Emperor! WAAAGH!!!
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